Intelligence Alert

Pakistani and Afghan military intelligence Rival Spy Chiefs Meet in Rome


The mutually suspicious Pakistani and Afghan military intelligence services have held low-profile meetings in Rome in a bid to iron out their deep-seated differences. Diplomats in the Italian capital say the talks in mid-February between Lt.-Gen. Ehsanhul Haq, head of Pakistan's Interservices Intelligence, or ISI, and Engineer Arif, chief of Afghanistan's National Security Directorate, were frank, with both sides spelling out their grievances in a blunt manner. The two sides also discussed the possibility of a visit to Pakistan by Afghan Defence Minister Mohammed Fahim. Afghan intelligence, which is dominated by ethnic Tajiks, is convinced that the ISI is providing shelter to Kabul's enemies such as warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and members of the Taliban and Al Qaeda Islamic militant groups. The ISI, in turn, is unhappy with the Kabul regime for allowing its rivals for influence in Afghanistan--India, Russia and Iran--unhindered movement around the country. The ISI is particularly angry that India has been allowed to establish consulates in Jalalabad and Kandahar, close to the Pakistan border. The meetings took place at the Pakistan embassy and a hotel in Rome.

Limits on Aid to Indonesia's Military
The United States will maintain tight controls on the sale of weapons to Indonesia this year, even though it has offered the sprawling archipelago some funding for military training. The fiscal 2003 foreign aid bill, passed by the U.S. Senate in mid-February, added several conditions for providing licences and financing for the export of military equipment to Jakarta. The bill says these can be issued only if U.S. President George W. Bush "certifies" to Congress that members of the Indonesian military "credibly alleged to have committed gross violations of human rights" are either being suspended or prosecuted by the Indonesian military or government. Past congressional prohibitions on U.S. military sales to Indonesia focused mainly on killings of pro-independence supporters in East Timor in 1999. Congressional aides say the expanded language is intended to cover more recent human-rights violations in the Indonesian provinces of Papua and Aceh. These include the 2001 murder of independence activist Theys Eluay and the killing last year of two American teachers, both in Papua. These conditions do not affect the $4 million offered last August to Jakarta for anti-terrorism training or the $400,000 for officer training.

China Wants More Muslims Listed
Beijing wants the United States to add a second group of militant Muslims in western China to a list of terrorist organizations. So far U.S. officials have refused the request--made most recently at counter-terrorism talks in Beijing--to designate the East Turkestan Liberation Organization a terrorist group. Diplomats say the evidence China has presented against the group is insufficient and dated. After his Beijing meetings, U.S. counter-terrorism coordinator J. Cofer Black would not confirm the Chinese request. But he said the U.S. has "exacting criteria" which must be met to issue a terrorist designation. Beijing had better luck last year when it got Washington to list another militant group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement. The designation requires that any group assets in the U.S. be frozen, an act that is mostly symbolic because small, regionally focused terrorist groups are unlikely to have American-based holdings. China saw the listing as validation for its long crackdown on Muslim minorities opposing Chinese rule in the central Asian region of Xinjiang.

North Korea Perfects Fake Bills
Pyongyang may have reached new heights of perfection in producing fake $100 bills. The North Koreans have acquired equipment from Europe that can detect counterfeit notes, according to Western intelligence officials. But they assert that the machines were not purchased to help stop bad bills being passed in North Korea, but to control the quality of Pyongyang's own fakes. Using this state-of-the-art equipment, the North Koreans will soon be able to produce notes that are even harder to detect than their $100 "supernotes" now in circulation. A researcher who follows North Korean affairs closely says these supernotes have been turning up recently in India and the southern Chinese enclave of Macau. The trade in counterfeit money is believed to be a very valuable source of income for the cash-starved North Korean government.

Mongolian PM to Debate Soviet Debt
Mongolia's huge debt with the former Soviet Union is expected to figure high on the agenda when Prime Minister Enkhbayar visits Moscow in mid-March. And officials in Ulan Bator add that Russia might try and use the debt issue as leverage to gain control of the vast Erdenet copper mine in northern Mongolia. A 12-year ownership agreement between the two countries--Mongolia owns 51% of the mine and Russia 49%--expires on March 1. Equivalent to $10.5 billion, the Soviet-era debt dwarfs Mongolia's annual GDP of about $1 billion and while Russia has negotiated sharp reductions with other former allies, it has so far reached no agreement on the disposal of the debt, the existence of which was revealed only after democracy arrived in Mongolia in the early 1990s. It's not just a question of history for the poor North Asian country. According to an assessment by the International Finance Corporation, the Soviet-era debt "could have significant implications for Mongolia's future debt-service burden and external sustainability."

China's Limited Patience on Korea
China, seen by the United States as key to pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear programmes, may yet agree to tough countermeasures against Pyongyang. That's according to one senior Chinese official, who tells the REVIEW that the threat of a regional nuclear arms race outweigh China's aversion to isolating its fellow-communist neighbour. "China will not allow North Korea to become a nuclear power, period," asserts the official, who is involved in Beijing's dealings with North Korea. Commenting on the possibility of United Nations Security Council economic sanctions against the North, the official says a declaration of nuclear status by Pyongyang could remove Beijing's lingering scruples about UN action. "If North Korea does that, it puts us in a stronger position," he says. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell failed to persuade Beijing to exert pressure on Pyongyang in meetings with senior Chinese officials on February 24.