WHY is the government so keen to fight Pakistan? The ostensible
answer, dinned deafeningly into our ears by India's ineffectual home
minister, L K Advani, is 'cross border terrorism in Kashmir.' Wait a
minute.
Is the government saying that it'll risk one billion lives in India
because it can't police J&K? It's also suggesting that J&K will live
happily ever after if we just have another war with Pakistan - the
fifth in 52 years.
This is bunkum. One, the troubles of Kashmir won't get over by taking
a swipe at Pakistan. Two, the risks of war are too horrendous to bear
thinking about. Three, remember, no matter how much Advani froths at
the mouth, terrorism is never 'cross border'.
The roots of militancy are the failure of politicians to do the right
thing by their constituents. After they fail and frustrations boil
over into violence, the same wretched politicos point across the
border and yell, 'they did it.'
For nearly 20 years, politicians told us that militancy in Punjab was
fuelled and inspired by Pakistan. Yes, many militant outfits were
funded and supplied by Islamabad, which likes watching India squirm.
But Punjab's militancy was wiped out without going to war with Pakistan.
It was wiped out with efficient policing, lots of back-breaking
political negotiation and finally, because folks on the ground,
exhausted by terror, preferred peace to violence.
No Indian government can end trouble in Kashmir by attacking
Pakistan, because the root of trouble is squarely back home in the
Valley.
But the Hindu fundamentalist BJP, a failure at governance, wants
something to airbrush its dreadful image. In 1999, a war with
Pakistan just before elections seemed to work wonders for the party:
it won 182 seats in Parliament and came to head today's ruling NDA.
Since then, it has lost every state, municipal and panchayat election
and looks certain to lose the next general elections whenever that is
held. Why not have another lovely war?
The BJP's limited intelligence and its anti-Muslim prejudices blind
it to the risks of war. There's no guarantee that a limited military
adventure won't spiral out of control, that crazy generals on either
side won't run berserk, and no evidence to show that India and
Pakistan have the maturity, sense of responsibility and institutional
controls that nuclear powers need. In fact, nobody knows whether
India and Pakistan have functioning control systems for their nukes.
Somewhere in a bunker, minutes after a Pakistan nuclear strike:
Georgeji: "Atalji, wake up and press the button."
Atalji: "What button? How dare you ask me to press some button? D'you
know I was in Parliament before you were born? Go press your own!"
Advaniji: "Arre bhai, where's the button?"
Generalji: "Sir, Jokhanlal the peon was bringing it over."
Advaniji: "And where's Jokhanlal?"
Generalji: "He's off, sir. The Union says No Work After First Strike."
Acharyaji: "The Dharmsansad must meet to determine an auspicious day
for our counter-strike."
Georgeji: "Never mind. Lemme see if I can cut a quick deal with
Westend for a button lookalike. A million dollars, cheap. Blinking
lights and batteries for free."
Get the picture?
I'm amazed at people who say that mutually assured destruction (MAD)
- a Cold War game theory model that predicts nuclear powers won't use
the weapons because that would finish everybody off - will keep New
Delhi and Islamabad from annihilating each other.
These complacent cretins, therefore, goad us to war: without nukes,
our limitless supply of cannon fodder is supposed to guarantee
victory over Pakistan.
These guys don't have a clue. The no-nuclear-war prediction of MAD
works only if a very stringent assumption holds: both sides are fully
rational and equally accountable to their people. Here, you have a
bunch of incompetent Hindutva fanatics on one side and a military
dictator hemmed in by Islamic fanatics on the other. I wouldn't trust
these guys with a tricycle in a park, and we're talking nukes!
Thank your stars that US troops are stationed in Pakistan, that
Musharraf is forced to talk peace, that the BJP risks the wrath of
the world by pushing for a war.
Because what this regime is pushing you towards is the most cynical,
mindless and destructive gambit that any Indian government has ever
tried to pull off. Stand up, say no to war.