Why should Pakistan go to war with India? The only serious dispute
with it is over Kashmir. But the issue is that Kashmiris desire Azadi
from the Indians. True, most Pakistanis support them, as they
sympathise with the Palestinians independent state idea. That is no
reason to fight with India just as Pakistan is not going to go to war
with Israel. Musharraf government says we support Kashmiris
politically, morally and diplomatically. That is right. Let's stick
to it. That should not be intolerable for India. Why, then, there is
so much ill temper and war preparedness at great cost to both
countries?

Indians allege that there is a large hiatus between Islamabad's words
and deeds; the latter is supposed to be equipping, training, funding
and infiltrating the Jihadis into Indian-controlled areas of Kashmir.
This was certainly true for many years. Pakistan Army had convinced
itself way back in 1990 that its then putative nuclear capability was
such an invincible shield that behind it, Pakistan could go on
bleeding India indefinitely without the fear of a serious reprisal.
It is remarkable that there were cognisable dangers of war breaking
out in the summer of 1990, probably 1995 and 1999, which the
Americans claim to have prevented.

Then came 9/11. Pakistan changed its stance vis-à-vis Taliban.
Indians saw a window of opportunity open up when there was a
terrorist attack on Indian Parliament on December 13 last. It gave
Pakistan an ultimatum and massed its troops on its borders in an
aggressive mode. India convinced its ally, the US, that it was also a
victim of terrorism that Pakistan was exporting. The US bought the
Indian argument hook, line and sinker. Hence it has put pressure on
Pakistan to not only go on helping the International Coalition pursue
the fugitive Al-Qaeda and Taliban inside Pakistan but should cut off
all links with Islamic extremists parties, groups, militias and
others who sustain Jehad in Kashmir and indulge in terrorism in
Kashmir and India.

Pakistani ruler, after vainly arguing that Kashmir Jihad is being
conducted by disaffected Kashmiris by way of their freedom fight and
that it cannot be confused with terrorism, changed again through the
Jan 12 speech. Pakistan in effect promised to end its aid to Kashmiri
insurgents. The rest of the world is holding General Musharraf to his
January 12 speech. Under American leadership, the rest of the world
has brought unbearable pressure on him to act on his words --- in the
way the Indians want it. Pakistan government has kept on saying it is
not sustaining the Kashmir insurgency. But almost no one believes
that the Jihad can go on without Pakistan's active support. Meantime
Indian and Pakistani governments have gone on trading fierce threats
of war, including the use of nuclear weapons. The whole world has
become anxious and is sending a stream of special envoys to urge
Pakistan to "do more" to reassure India that it will do what it says.
Musharraf said so again on May 27.

That should rid the people of Pakistan of the looming threat of war,
probably nuclear, so that they can get on with their serious
problems. Expectations of war were a huge and unnecessary distraction
from their real problems. There are no concrete issues between
Pakistan and India and Kashmir ought not to be a reason for war if
Pakistani government means what it says. Well, earlier a certain
amount of deception worked because there was that shield. Although
India always had a clear edge even in atomic weapons capability, it
took time to evolve a response to the Pakistani challenge. It now
threatens a conventional war and dares Pakistan to act on its
doctrine of first strike. It reserves the right to give a massive
nuclear riposte to reduce all of Pakistan to a nuclear wasteland.
That is where the two countries stand today.

Anyone who reads some of the Brookings Institutes latest reports on
South Asia will agree with Pakistan's peaceniks that Pakistan's
nuclear is a costly ornament for the Pakistan Army. Indian
strategists planning action against Pakistan hope that the US with
its special forces, precision munitions and CIA spooks would take it
out. There are however reasons why the US would not do it. But it is
most likely to prevent Pakistan pressing the nuclear button.

It cannot be repeated too often that no cause, including Kashmir, is
worth a nuclear exchange. There are good reasons why Pakistan Army
cannot cheat on Musharraf's promise, among them the US presence here
itself with its supporters. Therefore the Indian bottomline will
surely have to be satisfied. Indians will then climbdown the high
horse they have been riding for the last six months. Whether or not a
Pakistan-India dialogue resumes soon --- though it should at an early
date --- Pakistanis should get on with their problems. What are these?

Out of these, one is all too familiar: growing unemployment and
poverty, inadequate healthcare and education and skills training
facilities. The urban poor face even greater inadequacies. There is
the near-total loss of sovereignty in economic matters and a creeping
one in the political sphere, what with virtually the whole world
telling us not to tell lies and do what is unavoidable. It will take
a lot of doing and time before any improvement begins to be felt. One
says this not as an excuse to postpone discussion on the real
structural problems. It is just that these cannot be taken in hand in
the right spirit as soon as possible in situations of near-war. It
will take hard toil and time to effect noticeable change, beginning
with ridding the political life of the Army's stranglehold.

But there are other problems of the people that require immediate
corrective action. To begin with, there is the personal dictatorship
of a general, sustained by the Army acting as a vested interest.
There is virtually no constitution or a true legal system. The
suspended 1973 Constitution is a convenient fib to deflect the demand
for the really needed changes --- it is already there and will be
restored some day --- and also to effect the changes the dictator
desires with flick of his pen. This has happened before; poor
Constitution has been prostituted enough.

Anyhow ending the dictatorship of a person, quite irrespective of his
acceptable qualities, must end quickly. That General Musharraf has
given firm dates for October polls is to be welcomed, though the new
Parliament can scarcely meet on October 13 next to effect the
transfer of power. Let these dates not be changed on any pretext. As
for the polls, they had better be on conditions that all democratic
countries prescribe. The silly qualifications for candidates inserted
under Gen. Zia's pressure ought to be dropped. General Musharraf
should not debar individuals just because he thinks they were
corrupt. If the people still elect Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto
after all his propaganda, all that can be said is the people deserve
such leaders. The propaganda has not worked because it was seen as
motivated. Anyway it is not for Mr. Musharraf to say who should and
who should not contest an election; except certified lunatics or
felons, all should be able to stand for elections even from a prison
cell.

Above all else, there is that dangerous matter of Constitutional
amendments. Changes made in the organic law by one man can just not
be acceptable to the people or posterity. More so when it can be seen
that all the changes are being made for one purpose: Parliament
should be subordinated to the generals. That will divide the people
and sow seeds of possible civil war and all round disaffection among
sections that do not want to see their political system to be
perpetually a hostage of the military.

There are others who also want changes in the basic law such as more
autonomy for provinces or further empowerment of district
governments. But they stick to well known methods of effecting
changes: persuading two-thirds majority of the two Houses, as
mandated. Dictators possess limitless and unaccountable powers, are
surrounded by sycophants and brook no opposition. So they venture
forth into areas where wise politicians tread warily. The houses that
Generals in Pakistan built have proved not only to be jerrybuilt but
also preludes to disaster. Hope Mr. Musharraf will take heed.