A lot has been discussed about the Cauvery issue, so one more article on this would seem to be a repetition of known facts and views, but it is not what this article will be. I have a feeling that people concerned about this issue have not seen the broader picture in this issue. It is an issue that is pregnant with problems. That is the reason why I am writing this article to highlight the consequences of the current situation.

Let’s take a look at Tamil-Nadu ’s past. Tamils are one of the most culturally sensitive and conscious groups in this country. They try to protect their culture and heritage in a very steadfast manner. It is with pride that every Tamilian talks of the anti Hindi agitation during the seventies. Tamil-Nadu has had strong separatist movements and still continues to have those, in one form or the other. These movements are not much talked about these days because they were more of a political nature than a military one. Once those groups came to power it became politically incorrect to talk about it. But never the less they have been able to maintain the spirit without losing much steam. They might not directly talk of secession but try to glorify the Tamil culture. Which is just a euphemism for their territorial ambitions. Still the call of “Tamil Thai” strikes chord with a lot of people of this state.

No other state that is so very developed has any such movements as far as I know. The separatist movements are active only in northeast regions or in Kashmir, courtesy Pakistan. Almost all other states have not questioned the presence of their state in the Indian Union. The naxalites are operating in a few states but they have not been able to influence the electoral prospects. It is different in the case of Tamil nadu. Pro secession groups have been able to see success in the electoral arena also. It is mainly because the movement has a well-defined ideology and has the backing of the intelligentsia, rather than the cadres scourging the forests undergoing commando training. It is more at the heart of the people. More over this movement is not confined to this country alone. The movement is for a joint strong Tamil country comprising of parts of India and Sri-Lanka. So it has a much broader vision. It doesn’t take an expert to know of the military might of the Sri Lankan Tamil groups especially the dreaded LTTE. Moreover, TamilNadu is state endowed with a lot of resources and trained manpower. So the proposed state will be a very viable one. But the country as a whole is not much aware of these facts.

These are the facts that, the Central Government, should understand and take some action. S.M.Krishna has bowed to Kannada chauvinist groups to deprive Tamil-Nadu of its legitimate share of water. The central government might understand his political compulsions in this issue but they should also under stand the fact that these groups are of relatively recent origin and Tamil groups are much more influential and an even longer history. One thing I would like to mention here is that Tamil Nadu was the only state where these protests took place. The so called Kannadiga groups which seems to be very conscious of their cultural identity and averse to sharing water with Tamil Nadu, did not even raise a protest against this action of the central government. If this state of affairs continue then there will come a time, that is not too far, when the government here will have to take the words of Tamil nationalist movement. The probability of this happening is high because of the fact that all Tamils believe Tanjore to be the cradle of their civilization. So a destruction of this would mean that their very foundation is being destroyed. This is too much of a sacrifice for staying in the Indian Union. India has been sharing waters with its neighbors in a fine way. So the reasoning will be that we will be able to get justice only if we are a country of our own. Moreover one of the biggest dampening factor towards the full fledged growth of these organizations are that there is a strong perception even amongst its supporters that the economic costs of such an adventure would be unbearable. But if the cost to be paid in staying in the union is much higher, the consequences will be disastrous. Once the core is formed then it will be very easy to add others. The other things are the dragging effect due to the presence of much under developed states like Bihar, the domineering status of Hindi, the big brother attitude of North Indian politicians etc.

All this might seem surprising for the highly educated reader of this article but this is what will happen. The IT revolution will be of no help in increasing the economic status of the masses. Moreover they form the elite of the society and I have very few examples in history where the elite themselves started a revolution. I am saying this because there is always a pattern in history. A movement is started and it will remain stagnant for some period then it will be defeated, after a period of dormancy, there will be a resurrection at a later point when the circumstances favor them. These movements had reached a peak earlier during the anti-Hindi agitation. Now they will not remain quite. The strength of this movement can be gauged by the fact that the government of Tamil nadu is still providing pensions to those who participated in that agitation. The fight this time will be more vigorous than any other time. Previously it was their identity that was attacked but now it is their foundation that is being eroded.

The reader should not think these to be the words from an alarmist. All that I am trying to say is that with these things the Cauvery issue will create a critical mass that will sustain towards a successful separatist movement. After all it does not need weapons to free yourself, as the recent incidents in the world have shown. All it requires is a massive street protest and gone are those days when tanks were driven over protestors. It will be impossible to stop this even from a purely militaristic point of view because most of our forces are engaged deeply in the northern and eastern sectors. It would be naïve to think of preventing this by enacting stringent laws because nobody thinks of legality in these cases. The only solution to this problem: implement the orders of Supreme Court! It sounds silly is it not but the release of a few militants in exchange for Rubaiya Saeed in Kashmir almost brought the break away of Kashmir from the Indian Union. Only small incidents have the potential of creating history.